Natural population change (births minus deaths) (2026)

With 13.1 million in 2026, India is projected to lead the world in natural population change (births minus deaths), followed by Pakistan (5.3 million) and Nigeria (4.9 million). The top 5 is rounded off by DR Congo (3.7 million) and Ethiopia (3.4 million). Further down, Bangladesh (2.5 million) and Indonesia (2.2 million) hold the next two spots. Tanzania (2.1 million), Egypt (1.8 million), and Uganda (1.5 million) round out the top ten. Across the top ten, India would be 8.7× as high as Uganda (1.5 million). Six of the top ten are in Africa, with three from Eastern Africa. Among these countries, Indonesia is projected to see the largest year-over-year change at -2.9%.