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Probability of dying before age 40 (both sexes) (2026)

237/237 countries
Global57.94per 1,000 live birthsYear-over-year-2.23%5-year change-14.25%
1950
2026
2100

Rankings at a glance

Top 10 · Probability of dying before age 40 (both sexes) (2026)

With 270.1 per 1,000 live births in 2026, Nigeria is projected to lead the world in probability of dying before age 40 (both sexes), followed by Chad (261.68 per 1,000 live births) and South Sudan (233.91 per 1,000 live births). The top 5 is rounded off by Somalia (222.56 per 1,000 live births) and the Central African Republic (212.47 per 1,000 live births). Further down, Guinea (195.25 per 1,000 live births) and Lesotho (193.85 per 1,000 live births) hold the next two spots. Benin (191.55 per 1,000 live births), Mali (181.62 per 1,000 live births), and DR Congo (179.08 per 1,000 live births) round out the top ten. Across the top ten, Nigeria would be 1.5× as high as DR Congo (179.08 per 1,000 live births). Among these countries, Lesotho is projected to see the largest year-over-year change at -2.7%.

Rank changes

How probability of dying before age 40 (both sexes) changed between two years

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Historical trends

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Frequently asked questions

Which country has the lowest mortality before age 40 both sexes?
San Marino is projected to have the lowest mortality before age 40 both sexes at 7.24 per 1,000 live births in 2026, according to UN Population Division (2024).
Which country has the highest mortality before age 40 both sexes?
Nigeria is projected to have the highest mortality before age 40 both sexes at 270.1 per 1,000 live births in 2026, according to UN Population Division (2024).
What is the global average mortality before age 40 both sexes?
The global average mortality before age 40 both sexes across 237 countries is projected to be 57.94 per 1,000 live births in 2026, according to UN Population Division (2024).

Source: UN Population Division (2024) · Updated