Year-over-year change: -1.5%, trend down
5-year change: -28.8%, trend down
San Marino
Risk of dying before 40: 7.24 per 1,000 live births
View MoreProbability of dying before age 40 (both sexes)
Global78.87per 1,000 live births
19502100
2026
Rankings at a glance
Highest 10 · Probability of dying before age 40 (both sexes) (2026)
With 270.1 per 1,000 live births in 2026, Nigeria is projected to lead the world in probability of dying before age 40 (both sexes), followed by Chad (261.68 per 1,000 live births) and South Sudan (233.91 per 1,000 live births). The top 5 is rounded off by Somalia (222.56 per 1,000 live births) and the Central African Republic (212.47 per 1,000 live births). Further down, Guinea (195.25 per 1,000 live births) and Lesotho (193.85 per 1,000 live births) hold the next two spots. Benin (191.55 per 1,000 live births), Mali (181.62 per 1,000 live births), and DR Congo (179.08 per 1,000 live births) round out the top ten. Across the top ten, Nigeria would be 1.5× as high as DR Congo (179.08 per 1,000 live births). Among these countries, Lesotho is projected to see the largest year-over-year change at -2.7%.
Rank changes
How probability of dying before age 40 (both sexes) changed between 2021 and 2026
2021and2026
Historical trends
Key terms
- Life expectancy
- — Average number of years a newborn would live under current mortality conditions.
- Infant mortality rate
- — Deaths of infants under one year per 1,000 live births.
- Under-five mortality
- — Deaths of children under five per 1,000 live births.
- Crude death rate
- — Total deaths per 1,000 people each year.
Frequently asked questions
- Which country has the lowest mortality before age 40?
- San Marino is projected to have the lowest mortality before age 40 at 7.24 per 1,000 live births in 2026, according to UN Population Division (2024).
- Which country has the highest mortality before age 40?
- Nigeria is projected to have the highest mortality before age 40 at 270.1 per 1,000 live births in 2026, according to UN Population Division (2024).
- What is the global mortality before age 40?
- The global mortality before age 40 is projected to be 78.87 per 1,000 live births in 2026, as published by the United Nations in World Population Prospects 2024.
