Probability of dying before age 40 (both sexes) (2026)

With 270.1 per 1,000 live births in 2026, Nigeria is projected to lead the world in probability of dying before age 40 (both sexes), followed by Chad (261.68 per 1,000 live births) and South Sudan (233.91 per 1,000 live births). The top 5 is rounded off by Somalia (222.56 per 1,000 live births) and the Central African Republic (212.47 per 1,000 live births). Further down, Guinea (195.25 per 1,000 live births) and Lesotho (193.85 per 1,000 live births) hold the next two spots. Benin (191.55 per 1,000 live births), Mali (181.62 per 1,000 live births), and DR Congo (179.08 per 1,000 live births) round out the top ten. Across the top ten, Nigeria would be 1.5× as high as DR Congo (179.08 per 1,000 live births). Among these countries, Lesotho is projected to see the largest year-over-year change at -2.7%.