Probability of dying before age 40 for females (2026)

Nigeria leads the world in probability of dying before age 40 for females at 270.09 per 1,000 live births in 2026, followed by Chad (241.32 per 1,000 live births) and South Sudan (201.12 per 1,000 live births). Central African Republic (195.78 per 1,000 live births) and Somalia (191.55 per 1,000 live births) close out the top 5. Next up, Guinea (183.49 per 1,000 live births) and Benin (177.44 per 1,000 live births). Niger (174.36 per 1,000 live births), Lesotho (173.17 per 1,000 live births), and Mali (171.59 per 1,000 live births) round out the top ten. The gap across this list is wide — Nigeria has 1.6× the value of Mali (171.59 per 1,000 live births). Among these countries, Lesotho saw the largest year-over-year change at -3.0%.