Risk of dying, 15 to 50 (2026)

Lesotho is projected to top the global rankings for probability of dying between age 15 and 50 (both sexes), recording 241.11 per 1,000 alive at age 15 in 2026, followed by Nigeria (227.47 per 1,000 alive at age 15) and Chad (223.21 per 1,000 alive at age 15). The Central African Republic (211.46 per 1,000 alive at age 15) and Nauru (199.14 per 1,000 alive at age 15) complete the top 5. South Sudan (191.1 per 1,000 alive at age 15) and Kenya (176.36 per 1,000 alive at age 15) follow close behind. Somalia (176.24 per 1,000 alive at age 15), Zimbabwe (174.25 per 1,000 alive at age 15), and South Africa (167.83 per 1,000 alive at age 15) round out the top ten. Nine of the top ten are in Africa, with four from Eastern Africa. Among these countries, Lesotho is projected to see the largest year-over-year change at -2.4%.